Forest Fire

Whether a fire crosses the forest depends sharply on how densely the trees are packed.

Animation of the Forest Fire model running in Stigmery

Introduction

Trees are scattered on a grid at a chosen density and a fire is lit down one edge. Fire spreads only to directly adjacent trees. Below a critical density the blaze fizzles out; above it, fire reaches the far side. The jump between the two happens over a tiny change in density.

Background

The model is a lattice version of percolation theory, introduced by Broadbent and Hammersley in 1957 to study how a fluid spreads through a random medium. The sharp threshold, near 0.59 for an adjacent-neighbour square lattice, is a classic example of a phase transition.

Broadbent, S. R., & Hammersley, J. M. (1957). Percolation processes I. Crystals and mazes. Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 53(3), 629-641.

How it works

  1. At setup, fill each cell with a tree at probability 'density', and ignite the trees in the first column.
  2. Each tick, a burning tree sets its unburnt tree neighbours alight.
  3. A burning tree then turns to ash and cannot reignite.
  4. The fire stops when no burning trees remain; whether it reached the far edge depends on the density.

Parameters

density
Fraction of cells that start as trees. Near 0.59 the system flips from fires that die out to fires that span the whole grid.

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